Update: Tuesday morning Nov. 4th: This is the best article describing my gut feeling and analysis, so far!!
Obama could even lose Illinois!!
Below is Mcguyver's prediction:
McCain 428, ......Obama 110, ..............!!!!!!
Click on Image to enlarge:
The way I arrived at this prediction is by left clicking on each individual state at CNN and then on the "VIEW PREVIOUS OHIO WINNERS" for example.
Every state that had less than a 10% win for Kerry I put into Red for John McCain, with the exception for Vermont.
The reason for that is because Vermont loved John McCain in the primary (by 68%) and I cannot see even these New England liberals vote for a socialist, they are pretty independent there.
In California, Kerry won by only 9%, believe it or not, so I had to paint it red, too ( McCain was California's favorite in the primary).
Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois were won by Kerry with less than 10% but because the Democrat candidates are from there I had to paint them blue.
I almost threw in NJ as well, but I'm going easy on Obama.
I know you are thinking that I'm crazy. But follow me here:
1) We've had several anonymous posters at Hillbuzz.com, that stated, the internals from Obama's own campaign know..... that, they have to have a 10% lead in order to win because of the Bradley effect.
2) All the leads in all the polls have Democrats heavily weighted in their sampling. Implying of course, that more Democrats will be voting..... and I beg to differ.
Not too mention that they have anywhere from a 60% - 80% poll refusal rate.
So, who's responding to polls? Answer: Not voters who are flipping to McCain!!
Because of the enthusiasm for Palin, more Republicans will be voting, and, the early votes in California bear that out, for example.
2a) The pollsters are weighting undecideds heavily in the polls as well. And those are now trending towards McCain.
3) I lived on the Left Coast for a decade, and the friends I know that would be registered Democrat or Independent, and the type that voted for Kerry, would NEVER... EVER... vote for a socialist Obama!!
On more occasions than I can count, here in the HotAir comments, we've seen people reporting that friends and family members who have voted straight Democrat ticket for years...., will be voting McCain.
So why don't you try it at CNN and see what predictions you come up with?
Oh... I forgot...
Because even the people who believe that Obama will win (but are voting for McCain) will be voting the GOP back into a lead in the House and.. into the Senate!!
... Posted on HotAir.com here. and here.
...update 2:36 P.M.
I see a commenter thinks I'm silly..
Let me reiterate this and use California as an example because McCain was the primary favorite there.
Now first, let's throw in the Hillary supporters.... what do you guess.. 20% of them?
Give me a number.
Remember, Hillary won the primaries after the Jeremiah tape surfaced, except for the Texas caucus portion.
How many "socialists" surprises have we learned about Obama since then? give me a number...
Obama would not have won Iowa, or the Texas caucus if it were a closed primary, because when you have to audibly call your vote out loud, you don't want to be considered a racist
(I have blogged about this before in other posts here and the same goes for Huckabee the evangelical vs. Romney the Mormon).
Now throw in the voters who absolutely were not voting for McCain even in CA.... and throw in the passion that Palin added.
Now, you can count on the Republicans that were not voting for McCain in the general election, to now be motivated to vote for the Palin/McCain ticket.
Now, reread THE ABOVE.... who has been losing, losing, losing and losing more and more support?
Who has been adding support and adding more base support, process repeat, repeat again?
Update, 8:40 P.M. EST.
In response to commenter Thomas: No kidding!! You simply cannot equate this election with 2000, when we didn't realize the effect of exit polling on the later closing time polls.
Not only that...... There never... was the passion for GW as there is now for Palin!!
The Bush legacy wasn't all that popular in 2000.
The Palin "populist comet stream" is a WHOLE lot bigger!!
Great comment by HotAir commenter: Sign of the Dollar
(from 2nd paragraph):
The majority of the American people are not comfortable with Obama’s clearly radical, anti-individual, anti-capitalist political views. However, the media and his campaign have successfully created an environment in which it is risky for a person to admit their opposition to his views in public. His supporters (whom I believe to be a very vocal minority) can be rather intimidating, following their dear leader’s commands to “get in their faces”. Fortunately, nobody can follow you into the poling booth.
That is so true. Very true.
What you must say to people who ask who you voted for:
“It’s a private voting booth and I hold on dearly to my 1st amendment right of freedom of expression as well as the right to privacy.”
And then smile at them longingly.... and promptly, walk away!!
Update:Finally a number on the Hillary voters.....
Here is how many PUMA's are needed for a McCain win:
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid? End quote
Now do you believe me?